Youth turnout, voting in the South, and defections in the center-right: why the referendum risks translating into a slim parliamentary majority

The result of the referendum is not a good indicator of the upcoming elections, but even if it were - that is, if all the "Yes" votes for the justice reform turned into votes for the center-right and all the "No" votes into support for the center-left - with the current electoral law, the outcome of the polls would be "a rather slim parliamentary majority, if not" exclusively "a relative majority of seats". This is confirmed by the analysis of the Cattaneo Institute following the popular consultation on the separation of careers.

As a "purely illustrative" exercise, the institute overlays the results of the referendum in the single-member constituencies of the Chamber, showing the gap in percentage points between the Yes and the No: "The constituencies where the Wide Field would prevail by at least 5 percentage points would be 69; those where the center-right would prevail by the same margin would be 49. In the other 29, the margin is so narrow that, even if the votes for Yes and No were excellent predictors, we should consider them contestable".

A different scenario if the "Stabilicum" were to go through, which guarantees a majority premium to the party or coalition that receives the most votes on a national basis. But according to the director of the institute, Salvatore Vassallo, the prospect would no longer be so concrete: before the referendum, "it could be assumed that the center-right was ready to approve the new electoral law even by majority; today it would have to do so while taking the risk of working for its opponents. It is plausible that this would only happen if the center-left recognizes that it is also in its interest to change the rules of the game in this way".

The foundation speaks of a "defection from voting of about 12-15% of voters who had voted for the center-right in 2022" but rather than focusing on this figure - considered physiological - it highlights the "extraordinary turnout rate" among voters of opposition parties. Notably, the contribution to the No in the cities of the South, where "a variable share between 10% and 30%" of the current governing majority's base expressed opposition to the Nordio reform. For Youtrend, this is the "signal of widespread socioeconomic discontent" in the South that does not directly translate into votes for the wide field but of which the center-right must take account to avoid losing constituencies.

Several polling institutes emphasize the mobilization of Generation Z against the separation of careers. YouTrend also reports that the highest voter turnout is recorded among those aged 18 to 34: 67.3%, almost 8 points above the average. "Young people voted no around 60%." The driving force was the "desire for revenge," perhaps also connected to the mobilization against the failure to approve voting for those away from home.

The largest defections, within the majority, concern FI and Lega. According to the consortium Opinio Italia, voters from Forza Italia and Noi Moderati would have voted no at 17.9%, while those from Lega at 14.1%. For Youtrend, 16% of FI-Nm supporters rejected the referendum and 12% abstained; 14% of Lega supporters voted no and 4% did not express an opinion. Radar Swg also provides its snapshot: 32% of FI voters abstained, while 8% voted against; 37% of Lega voters did not express an opinion, with 6% voting no. The estimated percentage among FdI voters is lower but still significant: 24%, with 8% aligned with the no vote.

"It is a non-trivial drop rate" for FI, according to Pregliasco, which can be explained by the type of Forza Italia base: "A moderate electorate that wanted to send a signal to slow down the risk of concentration of power."