Justice referendum, Pregliasco: "The No is transversal, but the center-left should not be deluded"

"There is a very transversal NO, a wave that has touched many parts of the country. It has not only won in the red regions but also in the South and the islands, in areas like Lazio and Piedmont. In the end, the only strongholds of Yes were the Lombardo-Veneto..." This is stated by Lorenzo Pregliasco from YouTrend.

According to the pollster, however, "the center-left should not delude itself that the 14 million votes (against the justice reform, ed.) are theirs, because in this pool "there is a segment of the electorate that has come into play now, which does not feel represented by the current political offer" and that, precisely for this reason, in the next elections "could abstain".

According to Pregliasco, the outcome of the polls was influenced by "10% of voters who did not vote in the last European elections but expressed themselves clearly on the referendum: 65% for no and 35% for yes. This did not entirely make the difference but pushed the no. These are people who, predominantly, "wanted to express a vote of discontent, anti-government and pro-judges".

The pollster also comments on the fluctuating predictions regarding the outcome of the popular consultation. YouTrend had long indicated the prevalence of those against the reform, he emphasizes, then "yesterday the turnout seemed even higher - he recounts - it was thought it could surpass that of the elections. And this opened up other interpretations. In the end, it stopped just below 59% in Italy, which is a very high percentage, but not out of scale".

In his opinion, what pushed the no was "the idea of defending the Constitution, as has happened in most of the confirmatory referendums (except for the one on the reduction of parliamentarians and Title V). But, in addition to this, there was undoubtedly a vote of opinion that has two faces: that of the moderate electorate not ideologically opposed to the separation of careers but concerned about the risk of excessive concentration of powers in the government; and that of the vote against the government. A heterogeneous field that combines elements of protest and institutional sensitivity. And that rewarded the unity of the opposition that has invested a lot in this matter and has come together. In the end - he concludes - the resilience of the no front was higher than that of the yes, which recorded more defections.