Referendum, the voting map: one in three voters from the League did not go to the polls

The wave of No overwhelms the justice reform and inflicts the first real electoral defeat of the legislature on the government led by Giorgia Meloni.

With 53.6% of the votes, equivalent to 14.6 million ballots, against 12.6 million for the Yes, Italians decisively rejected the constitutional package “Meloni-Nordio”, which aimed to include in the Constitution the separation of careers between judges and prosecutors, the splitting of the CSM, and the establishment of a new High Disciplinary Court.

The most disruptive element of the consultation on March 22-23, 2026 is the voter turnout: almost 59% of eligible voters went to the polls, a remarkable leap compared to the 30.6% of the 2025 abrogative referendums. This strong participation gives the verdict an undisputed institutional legitimacy, transforming a topic from “insiders” into a true “value-vote” that closes any gap for contestation.

The voting map presents an image of a country where the large metropolitan areas have erected a dam against constitutional revision. Although the Yes prevailed regionally in Lombardy, Veneto, and Friuli Venezia Giulia, the capitals of the same regions overturned the outcome: in Milano, the No exceeded 58%, in Torino it approached 65%, while in Bologna and Roma it stood at 68% and over 60%, respectively.

The Mezzogiorno provided the decisive acceleration: in Napoli, the No reached a plebiscitary 75%, in Palermo 69%, and in Bari over 62%. The metropolises confirmed themselves as “hinge cities”, capable of bridging different social worlds against a revision perceived as unbalanced in democratic checks and balances.

The analysis of the flows clarifies decisive dynamics. In the progressive field, the Democratic Party showed a very high cohesion (75% of its voters for the No), as did the Green and Left Alliance, approaching 86% in compactness. In the Five Star Movement, the No prevailed significantly, despite an internal abstention of 28%. Surprising was the rejection from the liberal-reformist area (Azione, +Europa, Italia Viva): despite the favorable attitude of the leaders towards the Yes, 44% of their voters voted No and 37% opted for abstention.

On the government majority front, significant cracks emerge. The electorate of Brothers of Italy proved to be the most disciplined (68% mobilized for the Yes), but there was a dissenting share between 6% and 8% in all parties of the executive and, above all, a very high abstention among supporters of the League, approaching 37%. A mobilization deficit that affected the final result.

The immediate reactions define the perimeter of the new political phase. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni chooses the profile of institutional pragmatism: “The Italians have decided and we respect this decision. We will move forward responsibly.” Minister Nordio also claims the reformist intent of the text, excluding repercussions on the structure of the executive. The opposition, on the other hand, speaks of the opening of a “new season”: Giuseppe Conte evokes a “notice of eviction for the government”, while the entire center-left sees in the civic mobilization of these days the foundation of a concrete alternative in view of the upcoming elections.