Referendum, the voting map: why the No triumphs in cities, among young people, and breaks through in the South

Italy has decided, and it has done so with a clear voice that resonates especially in the squares of the metropolises: the constitutional reform of justice wanted by the Meloni-Nordio government has been rejected.

The referendum consultation has delivered to the country a redesigned political map, marked by an unexpected turnout and a deep fracture between large urban centers and provincial areas. The "No" front prevailed with just under 54% of the votes, surpassing 14 million opposing votes and distancing the "Yes" by about two million ballots. Not a plebiscite, but a politically disruptive verdict, corroborated by a turnout at the polls close to 59%, well beyond the pre-election forecasts.

The key to interpreting the vote is primarily geographical. While in the North-East, in regions like Lombardy, Veneto, and Friuli Venezia Giulia, the "Yes" prevailed on a regional basis, the large metropolitan areas led a true electoral revolt.

Milano and Venice indeed rejected the reform in contrast to their respective provincial territories. Moving down the peninsula, the wave of "No" became unstoppable: Florence and Bologna recorded a record turnout of 71%, with the rejection standing at 66.6% and 68.1% respectively.

In Rome, the 60.3% of opponents transformed the Capital into a national political laboratory. But the symbol of this round remains Naples: here the "No" surged to 75.5%, amid the celebrations of magistrates at the New Palace of Justice, effectively anticipating the overall outcome.

Also decisive was the generational fracture: according to surveys, the younger age groups (18-34 years), informed through social networks, local campaigns, and university events, largely sided with the "No". In contrast, among those over 55, more tied to traditional media like generalist TV, there was a greater propensity for the "Yes".

Despite the abrupt setback on an identity dossier for the center-right, an immediate government crisis does not appear to be on the horizon. The President of the Council, Giorgia Meloni, acknowledged the defeat in institutional tones, assuring the continuity of the executive's actions.