Referendum, the triumph of the No, the Justice reform rejected: "Victory like that of the partisan struggle." Meloni admits defeat: "But the Government will go on."

On March 23, 2026, a significant political and institutional turning point emerged for Italy. With a surprising turnout nearing 59%, the No front decisively rejected the constitutional reform of justice promoted by the government and Minister Carlo Nordio, securing around 54% of the votes, against a Yes that remained at 46%.

As it was a confirmative referendum, no quorum was required: the consultation was valid regardless of voter turnout, but the high participation gave the outcome undeniable legitimacy and political weight.

Voters thus overwhelmingly rejected, well beyond expectations, the justice reform signed by Minister Nordio with 54% of the No votes and in the face of a record turnout of about 60% (despite the confirmative consultation not requiring a quorum). The proposals for the constitutional separation of careers between the judiciary and the prosecution (overcoming the current single competition); the division of the Superior Council of the Judiciary into two distinct bodies; the introduction of a lottery for the selection of a portion of the members of the CSM; and the establishment of a separate High Disciplinary Court to judge the conduct of magistrates were all rejected.

Politically, the result produced immediate and opposing reactions. The President of the Council, Giorgia Meloni, intervened with a video on X just hours after the polls closed: in a firm tone, she acknowledged the defeat, stating that she respects the decision of the Italians, but reiterated the continuity of the executive, declaring that "the government will continue out of respect for the mandate received". This choice is consistent with the strategy adopted during the campaign, aimed at preventing the vote from becoming a judgment on her leadership: "This is not a judgment on the government. If No wins, we will not resign".

The Italians have decided. And we respect this decision.
We will move forward, as we have always done, with responsibility, determination, and respect for the Italian people and for Italy. pic.twitter.com/KCBf19hO8d

— Giorgia Meloni (@GiorgiaMeloni) March 23, 2026

The majority has rallied to downsize the institutional impact of the verdict. The Minister of Justice Carlo Nordio excluded a purely political interpretation of the vote, praising the high democratic participation, while the group leader of Fratelli d’Italia, Galeazzo Bignami, assured that the defeat will not compromise the course of the legislature.

The opposition, on the other hand, interpreted the outcome as a severe slap to Palazzo Chigi. Giovanni Bachelet, a member of the civic committee for the No, spoke of “a victory like that of the partisan struggle,” reflecting the symbolic temperature of the clash. From Radio Leopolda, Matteo Renzi (Italia Viva) warned the majority: “When the people speak, the palace must listen.” The progressive alliance celebrated the failure of the reform with triumphant tones: Nicola Fratoianni (Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra) accused the right of wanting to “distort the system of guarantees,” while Angelo Bonelli responded: “It will always be No!.” Even Giuseppe Conte (Movimento 5 Stelle) rejoiced, claiming the protection of the Constitution: “We did it! Long live the Constitution.”

From civil society, the secretary of CGIL Maurizio Landini welcomed the festive squares and called for the full implementation of the Constitution; Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (CEI) praised the participation and urged to overcome the oppositions.

The analysis of the flows indicates a reversal compared to the pre-vote polls, which for weeks had estimated that high participation could favor the Yes. What pushed the No beyond the psychological threshold of 50% was a decisive mobilization in the final hours, driven by an urban and educated electorate, concentrated in the Center-North and sensitive to issues of constitutional guarantees. Three determining factors: the perception that the package reduced the independence of the judiciary; the skepticism towards the lottery, perceived as opaque and random; and the effective polarization imposed by PD, M5S, unions, and the legal profession on the slogan of “defense of the Constitution and the impartiality of the judge.”

The voting map intertwines with that which emerged from a parallel round of abrogative referendums on citizenship and labor protections. In that case, participation was limited to 30%, well below the quorum, signaling the difficulty of mobilizing without a strongly appealing institutional theme. The picture reflects a divided country: the North-East (Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia) pushed for Yes, with metropolitan peaks exceeding 80% on citizenship questions; conversely, No prevailed in 14 regions, securing the Mezzogiorno and also establishing itself in areas of the Center and North-West, favored by an older electorate, the weight of local political networks in contexts of low participation, and a widespread conservative instinct on “system” issues. Uncertain zones emerged in Abruzzo, Umbria, Valle d'Aosta, and Trentino-Alto Adige, with Bolzano recording a clear No to citizenship in a linguistic-cultural countertrend.

However, the consultation has left a deep mark. Although attempting to separate the fate of the executive from that of the reform, Giorgia Meloni faces a heavy defeat on a key identity commitment of the government. At the same time, the dynamics that emerged confirm a national profile in which the capacity for mobilization and the gap between large centers and peripheries continue to shape the political agenda of the country.