Justice Referendum, record turnout: by 7 PM, over 38% of eligible voters have cast their ballots, in Sicily it stands at 28.7%

Very high turnout for the constitutional referendum on justice reform. The current turnout figure at 7 PM is over 38%. At the moment, the data reported on the Eligendo site is being updated and pertains to 37,810 polling stations out of 61,533.

As we have already written in another reasoned analysis published after the turnout at noon, the 7 PM figure, viewed through the analysts' grid, carries a precise weight. The critical threshold to surpass at 7 PM, according to historical flow analyses, was set around 23%: the current figure exceeds it by fifteen points, projecting the final participation well beyond 50% of eligible voters. It is not an exact science, but it is a fairly reliable compass: historically, when the machine starts moving with this intensity, the Yes front has the wind at its back.

The comparison with the closest previous referendum is telling. In 2020, for the referendum on reducing the number of parliamentarians — which also surpassed the quorum with 53% — 29.6% of eligible voters had cast their ballots by 7 PM. Today's figure surpasses it by almost nine points. With polling stations open until 11 PM tonight and tomorrow morning until 3 PM, and with major cities already over 40%, the picture that is emerging is one of unexpected participation. The final verdict will arrive tomorrow afternoon, but the numbers from this evening already tell a story.

In Sicily

In Sicily, by 7 PM, 28.77% of those called to vote have participated. The highest turnout percentage is recorded in the province of Messina with 30.91%, followed by Palermo with 30.31%, then Ragusa with 29.63%, then Syracuse with 28.93%, then Catania with 28.72%, Trapani with 28.15%, Enna with 25.39%, and Agrigento with 24.95%. The lowest percentage is in Caltanissetta with 24.77%.  In Sicily, 3,860,499 people are called to vote in 5,306 polling stations.