Poste on TIM, the knight's move: a 10 billion euro takeover bid for the country's "backbone"

On a Sunday morning at the end of March, when Milan is still dozing, the terminals of the financial desks are all flashing the same news. The board of directors of Poste Italiane has decided: total public offer for purchase and exchange on Telecom Italia, with the aim of acquiring the entire share capital of TIM and proceeding with the delisting from Euronext Milan. The completion of the operation is expected by the end of 2026.

The Numbers

This time, the numbers are official. The offer includes a cash component of 0.167 euros for each TIM share tendered, and a stock component of 0.0218 new ordinary shares of Poste Italiane for each share contributed. The total consideration represents a valuation of 0.635 euros per share, with a premium of 9.01% over the official price of March 20, 2026. Poste describes it as "highly attractive". The market will decide whether to agree.

We are not starting from scratch. In the past year, Poste has become the largest shareholder of TIM, with a stake rising above 24.8% thanks to the exchange with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and the purchase of 15% from Vivendi, operations already approved by the Antitrust without conditions. From January 1, 2026, the agreement that brings PosteMobile customers onto TIM's mobile network is in effect. This OPAS is the second act of a strategy built patiently, not an improvised move.

The Objective

The industrial objective is the creation of what the press release calls "the largest connected infrastructure platform in the country": a group with aggregated revenues of approximately 26.9 billion euros, a pro-forma Ebit of 4.8 billion, and over 150,000 employees. The estimated synergies between revenues and costs amount to 700 million annually. Alongside the already consolidated network of Poste — 12,800 post offices, over 50,000 retail points — three assets that Poste considers decisive are added: a national fixed and mobile network, a leading position in cloud and data center infrastructures, and the ability to offer secure and sovereign connectivity to all stakeholders — an element that the press release explicitly links to the recent European stance on digital sovereignty.

The strategic plan is to transform Poste from "the largest national distribution network" to "enabler of the country's digital transformation": connectivity, payments, insurance, digital identity, and cybersecurity in a single platform, with an unparalleled commercial network for its reach. For end customers, integrated offer scenarios open up — connectivity, payments, and insurance in bundles — and an acceleration on 5G and fiber optics. For the country system, the perspective is a single backbone on which to run digital public services, connected healthcare, and electronic payments.

Tim, for its part, has acknowledged "the total public offer of purchase and exchange launched this evening by Poste Italiane on the Group." Tomorrow, the board of directors will meet to initiate the evaluation process of the offer.

The Unknowns

The regulatory unknowns remain open. A total OPAS will open broader dossiers than those already overcome: Agcom will have to rule on competition in the network, and the government will exercise golden power over strategic assets. But the precedent of Antitrust — unconditional approval for entry into the capital — is a signal that the regulatory perimeter has been carefully monitored before moving the piece.

The horse move has been announced. Now it remains to be seen whether TIM shareholders, regulators, and the market will judge the premium sufficient and the vision credible. Italy connected by a single entity is on the table. No longer as a working hypothesis, but as a formal offer.