The price of gas exceeds the shocking threshold of 60 euros//MWh: very high bills expected next winter.

The reference gas contract at the TTF in Amsterdam closed the session strongly up at 61.85 €/MWh. The news confirmed the surpassing of a sensitive psychological threshold for operators.

The Old Continent, which seemed to be heading towards a regained energy normality, is experiencing sharp fluctuations and price swings reminiscent of autumn 2022. Since the beginning of the month, the market has alternated between violent corrections and sudden rallies, outlining – as noted by several industry experts – a “nearly perfect storm”.

The resurgence of tensions originates primarily from the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf. The military escalation of March 2026 has led operators to price in significant uncertainties regarding the full operation of the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, vital maritime junctions for the traffic of LNG carriers heading to Europe.

International reports have even indicated partial or temporary disruptions at the Ras Laffan, in Qatar, the largest LNG hub in the world, with delays in shipments and a rush by European counterparts to strengthen their coverage.

According to market estimates, a one-month blockade at Hormuz could push prices towards 74 €/MWh; more prolonged restrictions would reopen the door to three-digit scenarios. To testify to the financial nervousness, the tightening of margins required by brokers and clearing houses and the growing demand for options with strikes between 80 and 100 €/MWh to protect against further shocks.

Geopolitics is also intertwined with an internal vulnerability related to stocks. At the delicate start of the summer filling season, Union storage levels are significantly lower than the levels of the same period in 2024 and 2025.

As of March 8, 2026, data from the EU Council indicated an average filling rate stuck at 40-50%, with wide disparities among countries and a Germany clearly lagging behind the schedule. Rebuilding reserves from such a small cushion will require more time and larger volumes, at rising procurement costs.

The situation is worsened by the competition with Asia: with the JKM index on the rise, Eastern buyers are accepting significant premiums just to secure summer supplies, eroding the attractiveness of spot cargoes to Europe and reducing arrivals at regasification terminals.

In this scenario of "encirclement," the exit routes are limited. The pipeline network offers no margins: flows from Norway cannot exceed the current baseload, supplies from Algeria are nearing saturation, and contributions from Azerbaijan remain limited. Even the United States, often referred to as the emergency "lung," cannot fill the gap: liquefaction plants are operating at maximum capacity and infrastructure constraints prevent the immediate replacement of Middle Eastern volumes.

Once again, it is the real economy that risks paying the highest price. With the TTF above 60 euros, the margins of energy-intensive industries, from chemicals to glass, from ceramics to fertilizer production, are coming under pressure. If prices stabilize in the 60-80 €/MWh corridor, the risk of production stoppages and “demand destruction” already experienced in 2022 would resurface.

Families and small businesses are also watching with concern: a prolonged increase between spring and summer will translate into heavier bills for the winter of 2026-27. And governments today have less room for maneuver: public finances no longer have the large budget “airbags” used in 2022-2023 to cushion the shock with massive subsidies.