Fuels, the government chooses the scalpel: a "flash" cut in excise duties for 20 days, halt to the strengthening of the social card and limited resources.

On an ordinary Monday, at a gas station on the outskirts of Bologna: on the digital board, the "2.019 €/l" for diesel on the highway flashes like a warning, while at the cash register a truck driver is calculating with his eyes fixed on the receipt. After yet another fill-up costing 10-15 euros more than a month ago, the debate is no longer theoretical: immediate relief is needed. This is where the government's move comes in: a "temporary" cut in fuel taxes — just 20 days, according to the draft decree — to curb the rise in pump prices, a "horizontal" measure that absorbs (at least for this year) the idea of a further targeted strengthening of the social card. A compromise dictated by scarce resources and by a surge in oil prices in recent days, pushing gasoline and diesel to alert levels.

What the draft entails

According to reports, the Council of Ministers has approved a draft that introduces a tax cut valid for 20 days on all major fuels. The choice of a "horizontal" intervention — and therefore not selective — is motivated by the need to produce an immediate and easily verifiable effect on prices displayed at pumps and highways. The reduced duration, on the other hand, responds to the constraint of cash: the available financial space is limited (estimates speak of resources "under a billion"), while the revenue from fuel taxes and VAT remains a structural item in the public budget.

The objective

to mitigate the spike in pump prices recorded at the beginning of March 2026, triggered by the surge in Brent/Wti and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with visible effects on Italian prices within a few days. Various market surveys indicate rising gasoline and diesel prices, with thresholds exceeding 2 euros/liter on the highway for diesel and peaks of 1.90 euros/liter for gasoline on the regular network. Sources and surveys: Osservaprezzi Carburanti del MIMIT, private aggregations based on MIMIT, and analyses from associations of operators. See the latest operational updates on platforms like OpenCarburanti and weekly reports from FIGISC and price monitoring sites.

The mechanism

The "temporary" intervention should not be confused with the so-called mobile tax already provided for by the regulations since 2023: that activation requires technical parameters (deviation of average prices over several months) that today would not guarantee a sufficient or timely impact; hence the need for an ad hoc decree to temporarily override the existing criteria.

The audience

All consumers, without distinctions of income or use (private individuals, professionals, fleets). The "horizontal" choice maximizes the immediacy of the effect at the cash register but dilutes the redistributive efficiency.

Why 20 days: a window to "cool down" the market and buy time

Twenty years ago, it would have been referred to as "discount at the pump." Today, the tool is more sophisticated, but the logic is the same: adjust indirect taxation to mitigate an exogenous price spike. The 20-day window has three functions: to give a psychological and political signal to the market during a phase of rapid increases, to avoid a multi-month spending commitment when the budget margin is tight, and to assess, around the end of March and the beginning of April 2026, whether crude oil prices and refining margins (crack spreads) normalize or if a second intervention will be needed (which, in the absence of increased revenue, would become more difficult).

According to the latest surveys, the Italian tax differential compared to the EU average remains significant: +10.1 cents/l on gasoline and +21 cents/l on diesel compared to the average of the 27, which explains why a maneuver on excise duties, however limited, can quickly reflect on prices.

How much is it worth in your pocket? Three savings scenarios

The draft does not indicate (at the moment) the exact amount of the cut per liter. To provide a rough estimate, here are three illustrative scenarios for a full tank of 50 liters: 

1. Cut of 5 cents/l: savings of 2.50 euros per full tank.
2. Cut of 10 cents/l: savings of 5 euros per full tank.
3. Cut of 15 cents/l: savings of 7.50 euros per full tank.

With an average usage of 3 full tanks during the period (depending on mileage and vehicle), the effect would range from 7.50 to 22.50 euros per car. The overall macro impact depends on the distribution of consumption between gasoline, diesel, and LPG/methane, the number of refuels, and the elasticity of the "net" prices of companies based on crude oil. Cautionary note: during periods of high volatility, the recalculation of prices may partially absorb the tax discount.

The Prime Minister

The decree law passed by the Council of Ministers introduces a cut of "25 cents per liter" on fuel prices, said Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni presenting the decree. 

The political point

The government led by Giorgia Meloni is walking a fine line: on one side, the social and media pressure to contain rising fuel prices; on the other, the constraints of public finance and the need not to compromise the trajectory of debt reduction. In recent days, government officials and market analyses had also suggested a variable tax or a specific decree: the approved draft chooses the latter path, with a minimum duration and immediate impact, deferring any extensions to the assessment of market trends in the next 2-4 weeks.