Crude oil is on the rise again after the latest attack by Israel in the Gulf. Rome is accelerating on the "fuel dossier."

A flare in the darkness of the Persian Gulf, then the price surge. Last night, the terminals of the gigantic South Pars gas field, off the coast of Asaluyeh, caught fire after an attack that Doha attributed to Israel. A few hours later, financial terminals began to flash: WTI pushed towards $95.5 per barrel, Brent consolidated above $100, and for Italian motorists, filling up has become more expensive again. While the situation in the Middle East remains fluid, Palazzo Chigi and the Mef are working at a rapid pace: Giorgia Meloni and Giancarlo Giorgetti have revisited the "fuel dossier", considering anti-speculative measures and evaluating possible interventions on excise duties. Meanwhile, European stock markets remain in cautious recovery: the market awaits decisions from the Federal Reserve  and the European Central Bank, while anxiously monitoring developments in the Gulf.

Asaluyeh, the heart of Iranian gas that shakes oil

The attack targeted the Iranian portion of the South Pars field – the offshore twin of the Qatari North Field – an industrial complex that produces gas and condensates and revolves around the Asaluyeh hub. This was announced by the Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which described it as a "dangerous and irresponsible act" and a threat to "global energy security". Confirmation of the damage and the exact dynamics are still under evaluation, but images of flames were enough to awaken the geopolitical premium in oil prices. 

The fear is not only for Iranian supply. The Persian Gulf is crossed by the Strait of Hormuz, an essential maritime corridor for about 20% of the world's maritime oil trade. Since the early hours of March, with the intensification of the conflict, traffic and insurance on the routes have become more uncertain, and Brent and WTI have accelerated: in several exchanges, Brent has remained steadily above $100, while WTI has reached new highs for the year, supported by risk premiums and the possibility of further disruptions. 

Rising prices at gas stations: what the Italian consumer sees

In Italy, the rising phase of crude oil is already reflecting on the pump prices. At the end of February, new adjustments to the recommended prices of gasoline and diesel were recorded by several operators. This dynamic has been reported by industry surveys and picked up by specialized agencies. 

The Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy has announced that, based on the latest data collected by the Fuel Prices Observatory of Mimit, as of today, the average price of fuels in self-service mode along the national road network is 1.867 euros per liter for gasoline and 2.103 euros per liter for diesel. On the motorway network, however, the average self-service price is 1.950 euros per liter for gasoline and 2.169 euros per liter for diesel.

The "fuel dossier": options on the table and timelines

According to what is being leaked from the economic ministries, the "fuel dossier" includes three main areas: strengthening the powers of supervision and sanction against unjustified increases along the supply chain (refineries, logistics, network); a possible enhancement of the role of "Mr. Prices" for the transparency of price lists and the rapid identification of anomalous deviations between cost components, margins, and final prices; assessments on temporary fiscal measures, ranging from selective adjustments of excise duties to a targeted levy on excess profits in cases of evidence of speculation.

The stated objective is dual: to protect the purchasing power of families and avoid distortions along the value chain, without compromising the stability of revenue and the continuity of energy supplies. A complicated balance, in a context where the geopolitical variable can move prices by 10-15% within a few sessions.

The stakes

The episode of South Pars/Asaluyeh is not just another notch in the counter of a conflict that has already disrupted the certainties of energy trade. It is a signal of where risk is shifting: from routes, to industrial nodes, to prices that touch the daily lives of European citizens. Italy, which in recent years has learned to diversify in gas and to push for renewables and efficiency, must now refine its emergency kit for fuels: transparency, control, fiscal flexibility, and, above all, clear communication about what truly drives the price at the pump. Because in the face of a flare-up in the Gulf, the response cannot be just to wait for it to die down.